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An efficient, accurate, and interpretable machine learning method for computing probability of failure

Zhu, Jacob, Estep, Donald

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce a novel machine learning method called the Penalized Profile Support Vector Machine based on the Gabriel edited set for the computation of the probability of failure for a complex system as determined by a threshold condition on a computer model of system behavior. The method is designed to minimize the number of evaluations of the computer model while preserving the geometry of the decision boundary that determines the probability. It employs an adaptive sampling strategy designed to strategically allocate points near the boundary determining failure and builds a locally linear surrogate boundary that remains consistent with its geometry by strategic clustering of training points. We prove two convergence results and we compare the performance of the method against a number of state of the art classification methods on four test problems. We also apply the method to determine the probability of survival using the Lotka--Volterra model for competing species.


MLCBART: Multilabel Classification with Bayesian Additive Regression Trees

Tian, Jiahao, Chipman, Hugh, Loughin, Thomas

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Multilabel Classification (MLC) deals with the simultaneous classification of multiple binary labels. The task is challenging because, not only may there be arbitrarily different and complex relationships between predictor variables and each label, but associations among labels may exist even after accounting for effects of predictor variables. In this paper, we present a Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) framework to model the problem. BART is a nonparametric and flexible model structure capable of uncovering complex relationships within the data. Our adaptation, MLCBART, assumes that labels arise from thresholding an underlying numeric scale, where a multivariate normal model allows explicit estimation of the correlation structure among labels. This enables the discovery of complicated relationships in various forms and improves MLC predictive performance. Our Bayesian framework not only enables uncertainty quantification for each predicted label, but our MCMC draws produce an estimated conditional probability distribution of label combinations for any predictor values. Simulation experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model by comparing its performance with a set of models, including the oracle model with the correct functional form. Results show that our model predicts vectors of labels more accurately than other contenders and its performance is close to the oracle model. An example highlights how the method's ability to produce measures of uncertainty on predictions provides nuanced understanding of classification results.


All Emulators are Wrong, Many are Useful, and Some are More Useful Than Others: A Reproducible Comparison of Computer Model Surrogates

Rumsey, Kellin N., Gibson, Graham C., Francom, Devin, Morris, Reid

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Accurate and efficient surrogate modeling is essential for modern computational science, and there are a staggering number of emulation methods to choose from. With new methods being developed all the time, comparing the relative strengths and weaknesses of different methods remains a challenge due to inconsistent benchmarking practices and (sometimes) limited reproducibility and transparency. In this work, we present a large-scale, fully reproducible comparison of $29$ distinct emulators across $60$ canonical test functions and $40$ real emulation datasets. To facilitate rigorous, apples-to-apples comparisons, we introduce the R package \texttt{duqling}, which streamlines reproducible simulation studies using a consistent, simple syntax, and automatic internal scaling of inputs. This framework allows researchers to compare emulators in a unified environment and makes it possible to replicate or extend previous studies with minimal effort, even across different publications. Our results provide detailed empirical insight into the strengths and weaknesses of state-of-the-art emulators and offer guidance for both method developers and practitioners selecting a surrogate for new data. We discuss best practices for emulator comparison and highlight how \texttt{duqling} can accelerate research in emulator design and application.


HPC-Driven Modeling with ML-Based Surrogates for Magnon-Photon Dynamics in Hybrid Quantum Systems

Song, Jialin, Tang, Yingheng, Ren, Pu, Takayoshi, Shintaro, Sawant, Saurabh, Zhu, Yujie, Hu, Jia-Mian, Nonaka, Andy, Mahoney, Michael W., Erichson, Benjamin, Yao, Zhi

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Simulating hybrid magnonic quantum systems remains a challenge due to the large disparity between the timescales of the two systems. We present a massively parallel GPU-based simulation framework that enables fully coupled, large-scale modeling of on-chip magnon-photon circuits. T o accelerate design workflows, we develop a physics-informed machine learning surrogate trained on the simulation data, reducing computational cost while maintaining accuracy. This combined approach reveals real-time energy exchange dynamics and reproduces key phenomena such as anti-crossing behavior and the suppression of ferromagnetic resonance under strong electromagnetic fields. By addressing the multiscale and multiphysics challenges in magnon-photon modeling, our framework enables scalable simulation and rapid prototyping of next-generation quantum and spintronic devices. 1 Introduction Hybrid quantum systems, which combine distinct physical platforms, are a promising route toward advanced quantum technologies, as they harness strong interactions that may not be readily achievable in a single platform [1, 2]. These systems take many forms, coupling any two (or more) quantum platforms -- for example, superconducting qubits [3, 4], microwave resonators [5], single spins [6], spin ensembles [4, 7-9], or mechanical resonators [10-12] -- to harness strong interactions. These heterogeneous systems leverage complementary advantages of each component, but their rich multi-physics interactions pose formidable modeling challenges. A prominent example is cavity magnonics, where collective spin excitations (magnons) couple with microwave photons in a resonant cavity to form hybrid magnon-polariton modes when tuned into resonance [13-15]. These states are essential for quantum operations such as mode swapping [16, 17], quantum state storage [4, 18, 19], and dynamic control of energy exchange [19, 20]. The hallmark experimental signature of strong magnon-photon coupling is a pronounced avoided crossing (mode splitting) in the frequency spectrum, in agreement with theoretical predictions [21] and observed in many 3D [13, 22] and on-chip 2D [7, 8, 23] cavity based systems.


Developing a Comprehensive Framework for Sentiment Analysis in Turkish

Aydin, Cem Rifki

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this thesis, we developed a comprehensive framework for sentiment analysis that takes its many aspects into account mainly for Turkish. We have also proposed several approaches specific to sentiment analysis in English only. We have accordingly made five major and three minor contributions. We generated a novel and effective feature set by combining unsupervised, semi-supervised, and supervised metrics. We then fed them as input into classical machine learning methods, and outperformed neural network models for datasets of different genres in both Turkish and English. We created a polarity lexicon with a semi-supervised domain-specific method, which has been the first approach applied for corpora in Turkish. We performed a fine morphological analysis for the sentiment classification task in Turkish by determining the polarities of morphemes. This can be adapted to other morphologically-rich or agglutinative languages as well. We have built a novel neural network architecture, which combines recurrent and recursive neural network models for English. We built novel word embeddings that exploit sentiment, syntactic, semantic, and lexical characteristics for both Turkish and English. We also redefined context windows as subclauses in modelling word representations in English. This can also be applied to other linguistic fields and natural language processing tasks. We have achieved state-of-the-art and significant results for all these original approaches. Our minor contributions include methods related to aspect-based sentiment in Turkish, parameter redefinition in the semi-supervised approach, and aspect term extraction techniques for English. This thesis can be considered the most detailed and comprehensive study made on sentiment analysis in Turkish as of July, 2020. Our work has also contributed to the opinion classification problem in English.


Gender Bias in Emotion Recognition by Large Language Models

Herbert, Maureen, Sun, Katie, Lim, Angelica, Etesam, Yasaman

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) and their growing integration into daily life underscore the importance of evaluating and ensuring their fairness. In this work, we examine fairness within the domain of emotional theory of mind, investigating whether LLMs exhibit gender biases when presented with a description of a person and their environment and asked, "How does this person feel?". Furthermore, we propose and evaluate several debiasing strategies, demonstrating that achieving meaningful reductions in bias requires training based interventions rather than relying solely on inference-time prompt-based approaches such as prompt engineering.


Toward Robustness against Label Noise in Training Deep Discriminative Neural Networks

Arash Vahdat

Neural Information Processing Systems

Collecting large training datasets, annotated with high-quality labels, is costly and time-consuming. This paper proposes a novel framework for training deep convolutional neural networks from noisy labeled datasets that can be obtained cheaply. The problem is formulated using an undirected graphical model that represents the relationship between noisy and clean labels, trained in a semi-supervised setting.



Sync or Sink: Bounds on Algorithmic Collective Action with Noise and Multiple Groups

Karan, Aditya, Kalle, Prabhat, Vincent, Nicholas, Sundaram, Hari

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Collective action against algorithmic systems provides an opportunity for a small group of individuals to strategically manipulate their data to get specific outcomes, from classification to recommendation models. This effectiveness will invite more growth of this type of coordinated actions, both in the size and the number of distinct collectives. With a small group, however, coordination is key. Currently, there is no formal analysis of how coordination challenges within a collective can impact downstream outcomes, or how multiple collectives may affect each other's success. In this work, we aim to provide guarantees on the success of collective action in the presence of both coordination noise and multiple groups. Our insight is that data generated by either multiple collectives or by coordination noise can be viewed as originating from multiple data distributions. Using this framing, we derive bounds on the success of collective action. We conduct experiments to study the effects of noise on collective action. We find that sufficiently high levels of noise can reduce the success of collective action. In certain scenarios, large noise can sink a collective success rate from $100\%$ to just under $60\%$. We identify potential trade-offs between collective size and coordination noise; for example, a collective that is twice as big but with four times more noise experiencing worse outcomes than the smaller, more coordinated one. This work highlights the importance of understanding nuanced dynamics of strategic behavior in algorithmic systems.