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An efficient, accurate, and interpretable machine learning method for computing probability of failure
We introduce a novel machine learning method called the Penalized Profile Support Vector Machine based on the Gabriel edited set for the computation of the probability of failure for a complex system as determined by a threshold condition on a computer model of system behavior. The method is designed to minimize the number of evaluations of the computer model while preserving the geometry of the decision boundary that determines the probability. It employs an adaptive sampling strategy designed to strategically allocate points near the boundary determining failure and builds a locally linear surrogate boundary that remains consistent with its geometry by strategic clustering of training points. We prove two convergence results and we compare the performance of the method against a number of state of the art classification methods on four test problems. We also apply the method to determine the probability of survival using the Lotka--Volterra model for competing species.
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All Emulators are Wrong, Many are Useful, and Some are More Useful Than Others: A Reproducible Comparison of Computer Model Surrogates
Rumsey, Kellin N., Gibson, Graham C., Francom, Devin, Morris, Reid
Accurate and efficient surrogate modeling is essential for modern computational science, and there are a staggering number of emulation methods to choose from. With new methods being developed all the time, comparing the relative strengths and weaknesses of different methods remains a challenge due to inconsistent benchmarking practices and (sometimes) limited reproducibility and transparency. In this work, we present a large-scale, fully reproducible comparison of $29$ distinct emulators across $60$ canonical test functions and $40$ real emulation datasets. To facilitate rigorous, apples-to-apples comparisons, we introduce the R package \texttt{duqling}, which streamlines reproducible simulation studies using a consistent, simple syntax, and automatic internal scaling of inputs. This framework allows researchers to compare emulators in a unified environment and makes it possible to replicate or extend previous studies with minimal effort, even across different publications. Our results provide detailed empirical insight into the strengths and weaknesses of state-of-the-art emulators and offer guidance for both method developers and practitioners selecting a surrogate for new data. We discuss best practices for emulator comparison and highlight how \texttt{duqling} can accelerate research in emulator design and application.
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Toward Robustness against Label Noise in Training Deep Discriminative Neural Networks
Collecting large training datasets, annotated with high-quality labels, is costly and time-consuming. This paper proposes a novel framework for training deep convolutional neural networks from noisy labeled datasets that can be obtained cheaply. The problem is formulated using an undirected graphical model that represents the relationship between noisy and clean labels, trained in a semi-supervised setting.
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Adaptation and Fine-tuning with TabPFN for Travelling Salesman Problem
Vu, Nguyen Gia Hien, Tang, Yifan, Lim, Rey, Yang, Yifan, Ma, Hang, Wang, Ke, Wang, G. Gary
Tabular Prior-Data Fitted Network (TabPFN) is a foundation model designed for small to medium-sized tabular data, which has attracted much attention recently. This paper investigates the application of TabPFN in Combinatorial Optimization (CO) problems. The aim is to lessen challenges in time and data-intensive training requirements often observed in using traditional methods including exact and heuristic algorithms, Machine Learning (ML)-based models, to solve CO problems. Proposing possibly the first ever application of TabPFN for such a purpose, we adapt and fine-tune the TabPFN model to solve the Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP), one of the most well-known CO problems. Specifically, we adopt the node-based approach and the node-predicting adaptation strategy to construct the entire TSP route. Our evaluation with varying instance sizes confirms that TabPFN requires minimal training, adapts to TSP using a single sample, performs better generalization across varying TSP instance sizes, and reduces performance degradation. Furthermore, the training process with adaptation and fine-tuning is completed within minutes. The methodology leads to strong solution quality even without post-processing and achieves performance comparable to other models with post-processing refinement. Our findings suggest that the TabPFN model is a promising approach to solve structured and CO problems efficiently under training resource constraints and rapid deployment requirements.
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MASPRM: Multi-Agent System Process Reward Model
Yazdani, Milad, Mostajabdaveh, Mahdi, Zhou, Zirui, Xiong, Ying
Practical deployment of Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) demands strong test-time performance, motivating methods that guide inference-time search and selectively spend compute to improve quality. We present the Multi-Agent System Process Reward Model (MASPRM). It assigns per-action, per-agent values to partial inter-agent transcripts and acts as an inference-time controller. MASPRM is trained from multi-agent Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) rollouts without requiring step-level human annotations, by propagating returns to local targets. At inference, MASPRM guides step-level beam search and MCTS, focusing computation on promising branches and pruning early. On GSM8K and MATH, MASPRM-guided decoding with an outcome reward model (ORM) applied to the final answer, improves exact match (EM) over a single straight-through MAS pass by $+30.7$ and $+22.9$ points, respectively. A MASPRM trained on GSM8K transfers zero-shot to MATH without retraining, adding $8.4$ EM points at the same budget. MASPRM is a plug-in value model that estimates per-agent progress and complements verifier-style decoders, enabling more reliable, compute-aware multi-agent reasoning. Code: https://github.com/milad1378yz/MASPRM
- North America > Canada > British Columbia > Metro Vancouver Regional District > Burnaby (0.14)
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- Asia > Myanmar > Tanintharyi Region > Dawei (0.04)
CleverCatch: A Knowledge-Guided Weak Supervision Model for Fraud Detection
Mozafari, Amirhossein, Hashemi, Kourosh, Shafagh, Erfan, Motamedi, Soroush, Tayebi, Azar Taheri, Tayebi, Mohammad A.
Healthcare fraud detection remains a critical challenge due to limited availability of labeled data, constantly evolving fraud tactics, and the high dimensionality of medical records. Traditional supervised methods are challenged by extreme label scarcity, while purely unsupervised approaches often fail to capture clinically meaningful anomalies. In this work, we introduce CleverCatch, a knowledge-guided weak supervision model designed to detect fraudulent prescription behaviors with improved accuracy and interpretability. Our approach integrates structured domain expertise into a neural architecture that aligns rules and data samples within a shared embedding space. By training encoders jointly on synthetic data representing both compliance and violation, CleverCatch learns soft rule embeddings that generalize to complex, real-world datasets. This hybrid design enables data-driven learning to be enhanced by domain-informed constraints, bridging the gap between expert heuristics and machine learning. Experiments on the large-scale real-world dataset demonstrate that CleverCatch outperforms four state-of-the-art anomaly detection baselines, yielding average improvements of 1.3\% in AUC and 3.4\% in recall. Our ablation study further highlights the complementary role of expert rules, confirming the adaptability of the framework. The results suggest that embedding expert rules into the learning process not only improves detection accuracy but also increases transparency, offering an interpretable approach for high-stakes domains such as healthcare fraud detection.
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